UAP 3024, Fall 2018
Urban and Regional Analysis

Virginia Tech, College of Arhictecture and Urban Studies | School of Urban Affairs & Planning

10:10 - 11:00 AM, Architecture Annex Room 7, Mon & Wed & Fri
Instructor: Wenwen Zhang

Overview

More than one half of the world population lives now in urban areas, and virtually all countries of the world are becoming increasingly urbanized. Smart urbanization process requires information, such as population growth, changes in demographic compositions, economic activities and demand of infastructures to allcoate human and monetary resources efficiently. Such information are analzed via applying well-designed demographic, economic, land use, and tranpsortation models to various urban datasets. This class offers an introduction to quantitative analysis for planners, with a focus on data and analytics skills typically used in planning analysis. By the end of the semester, students should be familiar with various planning data sources and foundational stastical concepts, and visualization/presentation skills.

Office Hours

Wenwen Zhang @ Architecture Annex, Room 215
by Appointment
Hector Mendoza @ Architecture Annex, Room TBD

Class Objective

The goals of this course are:

Knowledge of existing data sources for planning analysis
Basic tools for demographic/cohort analysis
Foundamental economic metrics
Understanding of statistical models and interpreting results and apply models to planning problems
Land use and transportation demand analysis
Ability to present and visualize the results
Familiar with quantiative analysis in Excel

In general, this course will serve as a basic introduction for those who want to use quantiative model to perform population and economic analysis, as well as forecast demand for residential and commerical land uses and transportaiton infrastructures. Students will be provided with a firm grounding in the principles and concepts of popualtion and economic analysis models, applications of these techniques to Census data to inform real-world planning process. By the end of the course, students are expected to understand the basic components of quantitative analysis in planning and to be familiar with the strength and limitations of different models.

Course Procedure and Organization

The course is organized in a series of lectures, hands-on Excel exercises, and readings. The lectures and readings are designed to allow students to have basic knowledge of urban data structures, model principles, and implementations. The exercise session will provide students with hands-on experience using Excel. During the model implementation process, students will learn the skills to conduct data query, basic joining, and perform statistics tests in Excel. Students will use Google Classroom to submit assignments. The class discussion with other participants and lecturer will be hosted on Piazza. The class materials and schedules are published on the Google Classroom website.

The challenge in learning quantitative analysis lies in absorbing a conceptual understanding of different urban modesl and linking this understanding with Excel training in implementation. Therefore, every attempt has been made wherever possible, to provide a “hands-on” exercise application of the concepts demonstrated in the previous lecture sessions. Additionally, practical case-studies in homework assignment will provide examples of the data and models learned in class may be applied in real-world practices, in data preparation, and in problem-solving, to bridge the gap between academics and technicalities.

Readings and Materials

The following books are recommended

Planner’s Estimating Guide: Projecting Land-Use and Facility Needs. (Nelson, Arthur C)
Applied Demography (Siegel, Jacob)
Statistics: A tool for Social Research (Healey, Joseph)

Readings will be posted to Google Classroom. Students are expected to finish readings before coming to classes.

Class Schedule (Tentative)

Date		Topic	Mon	Wed	Fri	Reminders
Aug.	20, 22, 24	* Welcome and Overview	Introduction	Urban Modeling Overview	Introduction to Census Data
	27, 29, 31	* Make Sense of Census Data	Census Data Query Inclass Exercise	Descriptive Statistics Inclass Exercise	Descriptive Statistics Inclass Exercise	HW 1 OUT
Sept.	3, 5, 7	* Statistics Foundamentals	Labor Day \| No Class	Hypothesis Test Concepts	Hypothesis Testing using Census Data	HW1 DUE SEPT 9TH, 11:59PM
	10, 12, 14	* Population Forecast	Introduction to Time Series Models	Complex Time Series Models	Complex Time Series Models	HW 2 OUT
	17, 19, 21	* Population Forecasts	Ratio Time Series Models	Apply Time Series Models in Excel	Apply Time Series Models in Excel	HW2 DUE SEPT 23RD, 11:59PM
	24, 26, 28	* Cohort Analysis	Cohort Component Overview	Fertility	Mortality
Oct.	1, 3, 5	* Cohort Analysis	Migration Model	Migration Model	Apply cohort component models in Excel	FINAL PROJECT OUT
	8, 10, 12	* Economic Analysis	Economic Analysis Overview	Economic Base Theory and Location Quotients	Shift-share Models	HW3 OUT
	15, 17, 19	* Economic Analysis	Input-output Model	Apply Shift-share Model in Excel	Fall Break \| No Class	HW3 DUE OCT 21TH, 11:59PM
	22, 24, 26	* Land Use Dedemand	Open Book Midterm	Residential Land Demand Model Overview Land Use Data	Residential Land Demand Cacluation	HW4 OUT MIDTERM
Nov.	29, 31, 2	* Land Use Dedemand	Commercial Land Demand Model Overview	Commercial Land Demand Model Techniques	Commercial Land Demand Model Application	HW4 DUE NOV 10TH, 11:59PM
	5, 7, 9	* Transportation Demand	Transportation Model Overview	NHTS Data and Four Step Model	Trip Generation using NHTS data
	12, 14, 16	* Recent trends in Planning Models	Big Data and Planning Models	Agent Based Simulations	Data Visualization
Dec.	27, 29, 01	* NO CLASS	Thanks Giving \| No Class	Thanks Giving \| No Class	Thanks Giving \| No Class
	26, 28, 30	* Group Presentations	Group Presentations	Group Presentations	Group Presentations
Dec.	3, 5	* Final Project Preparation	Work on Projects	Work on projects
	10	* Final	Projects Due			PROJECT DUE

Course Requirements and Grading

Homework Assignments [50%]

The BEST way to get help with homework assignments is to post your questions to Piazza. (Please kindly review the posted questions for potential answers) If you prefer that keep your questions to only the TA and the instructor, you may use the private post feature (i.e., check the "Individual Students(s) / Instructors(s)" radio box).

NO collaboration is allowed for homework assignments, each student must write up their own answers. All VT students must observe the Undergraduate honor code manual.

We plan to have four assignments (Check Schedule for Due time):

HW1 [10%]: Statistic Analysis Using Census Data
HW2 [15%]: Population Forecast
HW3 [15%]: Economic Analysis
HW4 [10%]: Land Use Demand Estimation

The detailed grading criteria will be provided in assignment descriptions. Students will have approxiatmely 1.5 - 2 weeks to finish the assignment. The in-class exercise sessions will cover similar questions!

Class Project [25%]

There will be one team project for group of 3-4. Students are expected to utilize models learned in class to perform demographic and economic analysis to estiamte land use and transportation demands for an assigned study area. Scores will be distributed based on peer evaluation.

Exam [15%]

There will be one open-book midterm exam after Fall break, covering materials taught before the exam. Types of questions on the exam including: short asnwer question for critical concepts, multiple-choices, excel functions, and calcualtions.

Participation [10%]

Hint Piazza does track students' contributions

Attendance, participation in class discussions, and out of class discussions (on Piazza), and motivation may affect your grade and could potentially influence any borderline grade. Roll will be called in class (sometimes ungraded short quizes).

Final Evaluation

The breakdown of final grades:

A : [94,100]
A- : [90, 94)

B+ : [87, 90)
B : [83, 87)
B- : [80, 83)

C+ : [77, 80)
C : [73, 77)
C- : [70, 73)

D : [60, 70)
F : [0 , 60)

Late Submissions Policy

Homework: each student has 5 slip days total. No questions asked.
Each slip day equals 24 hours. E.g., 2 slips days will be used if you submit your assignment 40 hours after the deadline
After all slip days are used up, 10% deduction for every 24 hours of delay. (e.g., 10 points for a 100-point homework)
To use slip days, identify the number of days you have used by the end of the homework assignment
Project: Slip days cannot be used for team projects. 5% reduction for every 24 hours of delay. NO project will be graded if submitted 3 days after the deadline

We will not consider late submission of any missing parts of an homework assignment or project deliverable. To make sure you have submitted everything, download your submitted files to double check.

No penalties for medical reasons or emergencies. You must submit a doctor's note or an official letter explaining the emergency.

Class Accessibility

Any student with a disability requiring accommodations in this course is encouraged to contact me after class or during office hours. In addition, students should contact the Services for Students with Disabilities for Academic Success.

Finally, a couple of house keeping things

Check the class website frequently to see any changes, updates, tips, and announcements.
When you submit your final work, please include all your works into one PDF file, following file naming convention like this: ‘ch1_Lastname.pdf’, ‘major1_Lastname.pdf”, ‘Exam_Lastname.pdf’. Word and Excel NOT allowed for submission
When you have questions, please e-mail me with a heading of “[UAP3024]” in the subject.

UAP 3024, Fall 2018 Urban and Regional Analysis